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The laws of probability require very improbable events. This includes volcanoes in cold places interrupting the supply of fruit from hot places.

The laws of probability require very improbable events. This includes volcanoes in cold places interrupting the supply of fruit from hot places.

It’s now about a week since the Eyjafjallajoekull volcano in Iceland exploded, aircraft were grounded, passengers frustrated and radio and TV newsreaders frenziedly tried to find somebody to tell them how to pronounce Eyjafjallajoekull.

Our blog on Monday discussed the links between the volcanic eruption and some of the ACCA papers. It also mentioned the challenges that supermarkets would face in their supply chain.

I am writing this in Manchester, a major city in the north of England and home to many restaurants that include things like asparagus, strawberries, passion fruit and many other things that tend to grow poorly in the north of England in April.

I was chatting to the chef at one of these restaurants last night and he mentioned that his restaurant was presently redesigning its menu to ensure that they were able to put food onto customers’ tables in a couple of days’ time.  Without doubt, the exotic fruit and vegetables will disappear soon. To be honest though the replacement menu the chef was talking about sounded absolutely delicious.

Any ACCA P1 students reading this should be aware of COSO compliance issues. It seems unlikely that a COSO compliant restaurant manager would seriously have considered the possibility that exotically named volcanoes might interrupt the supply of exotic ingredients, but they ought to have considered possible interruptions in the supply chain inwards.

The restaurant I ate at last night was well prepared and did have contingency plans in place. When I returned home after the meal I heard that the flight ban had been lifted so the shelves should remain full of the exotic fruit and vegetables. I’ll certainly go back to the restaurant though to see if they decide to stick with the new menu!

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